Last week’s New York Times had an interesting column by John Tierney, recounting the result of a five-year bet with Mathew R. Simmons, author of the book Twilight in the Desert; The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy. In brief, five years ago, Mr. Simmons bet Mr. Tierney that over the course of 2010, oil prices would average at least $200 a barrel in 2005 dollars … up from $65 a barrel in 2005. Mr. Tierney took the other side of the bet, not because he had any particular knowledge of the oil industry, but because he...