And that feeling turned out to be right. My flight home to Boston was canceled because of the wet weather and I was unable to get through to Delta via phone, email and Twitter. So I took matters into my own hands, booked a train ticket and high-tailed it out of New York.

That turned out to be a wise decision, as I was not able to get in contact with Delta until Tuesday morning, at which time they apologized and said they would refund the unused portion of my ticket.

In the meantime, I received this email from a reader that I wanted to share with you today:

“United Airlines is one of the two worst companies with which I’ve ever had to deal in my 72 years of living. I’d rather not go some place, no matter how desirable, than fly United. Aeroflot in the 1970s was better despite my doubts (unjustified, it seems) of ever reaching intended destinations, at least in one piece.  At least when you reached a destination they let you off the plane.  United has been a terrible airline for decades. They don’t like their customers and the personnel are unusually surly.

“Jet Blue is one of the best but unfortunately they are not a presence in Chicago. I know little about Delta. The best airline used to be Piedmont until they were taken over by U.S. Air. Flying, in general, because of greatly deteriorated airline service and the irritation of security checks, has become so unpleasant that I find myself very reluctant to go anywhere via airlines although Southwest is tolerable. Only a serious personal crisis would induce me to ever again fly United. It’s hard to imagine investing in a company whose demise I so fervently desire. I used to enjoy flying.

“That doesn’t mean UAL is a bad trade but one only trades rather than invests in airline stocks since it’s an inherently unprofitable business most of the time and over the entirety of the airline business. It’s a business where one profits only by buying red ink and selling black ink; so as a trade it might work out as long as speculators don’t stick around long enough to believe that profitability, if achieved, will be sustained.

“I am anxious to see high-speed rail transportation displace the airlines. Otherwise, driving is the best choice domestically. Not traveling at all is a preferable alternative to flying United.”

B.G.
Chicago, Illinois

The part of B.G.’s email that really struck me was his excited anticipation of high-speed rail travel. Despite the stresses of my last-minute trek home by train, the trip was extremely pleasant.

The seats were very comfortable and spacious. The personnel were jovial and kind. And the best part of all: I didn’t have to take my shoes off.

I would love to do more train travel myself, as it is an infinitely better experience than flying and you get to see the landscape as you get to your destination. Unfortunately, I don’t see rail travel catching on to any large degree because people are often crunched for time and traveling by train takes a lot longer than flying. Even the high-speed train to New York from Boston is two hours longer than the plane trip. (Although you don’t have to get there as early–no little baggies full of liquids to be scanned at the train station.)

All of this traveling has got me looking at travel stocks more than ever. The timing seems perfect because another travel stock popped up on my radar this week: U.S. Airways (LCC), which was always my parents’ choice of airline when I was younger. My trips on U.S. Air were generally pleasant, although I haven’t flown on the airline in a while.

Here’s what Editor Michael Cintolo had to say about the company in a recent Cabot Top Ten Report:

“Though you can’t see it (yet) in the company’s sales and earnings results, U.S. Airways is strong today because there are material signs that business is picking up, and quickly. In February, for instance, total revenue per available seat mile rose 9%, a slight acceleration from January’s 3% growth, and continuing the encouraging booking trends seen in the latter part of 2009. Moreover, corporate bookings last month surged 35% from a year ago, a strong sign that businesses are beginning to open up their wallets, which can drive business for the airlines materially higher. Combine that with relatively stable energy prices (fuel is a huge cost for any airline), and that’s led analysts to forecast huge jumps in earnings this year ($1.18 per share this year). No one will argue that airlines are great long-term growth companies, but the sector is in the midst of a profitable turnaround today, and stocks like U.S. Airways are reflecting that.

“LCC is low priced, but in terms of dollars traded per day, it’s very liquid; shares trade an average of nearly $100 million each day. And much of that trading of late has been buying–LCC has risen seven weeks in a row, a sign of persistent demand, and we like that the advance has been relatively steady, with few bears able to put up much of a fight. That said, the 50-day line is down around 6.3 (and rising), so we feel that buying on weakness is your best bet.”

If you decide to buy LCC, keep in mind that in addition to being an airline stock, it’s low-priced, so it’s likely to be more volatile than stocks priced over 10. As I said last week, I wouldn’t bet the mortgage on an airline stock, but in the short term, they could turn out to be quite profitable.

(Note: Priceline.com (PCLN), which I discussed last week, is featured in yesterday’s video.)

You can watch the video here.

First, in the short-term (say, the next two or three weeks), it’s likely that the market and many stocks could hit a rough patch.  The huge number of new highs effectively tells you that enthusiasm has reached a crescendo … and when that happens, the late buyers are usually punished.  So I think a modest choppy period with the major indexes falling 2% to 4%, as well as some damage to leading stocks, is likely.

Long-term, however, such a huge number of new highs tells you the market’s breadth is outstanding.  And bull markets do not end until the breadth of the market fades for many weeks or longer–when the generals advance while the troops don’t follow.  There’s no sign of that now, and the power of this recent advance tells me there’s lots of pent-up buying pressures still out there.

So what’s the game plan?  First, I think now’s a good time to get rid of any stocks you own that haven’t been pulling their weight; if they haven’t been able to bounce much in recent weeks, or are still well below their peaks from last fall or early January, they’re likely not leaders.  And that means they could get hit further should the market begin to consolidate and correct.

Second, if you so choose, you could lighten up on some of your winners … although that’s not my preferred route.  True, some stocks that have just bolted 15%, 20% or more could easily pull back and cause some pain and discomfort.  But seeing as how the market just confirmed its new rally at the start of this month, I think the stocks that have shown tremendous power are those you want to hold on to … or even buy more of.

Which brings me to my third piece of advice:  You should be looking to buy on weakness in the days ahead.  While it’s true there are likely to be a few more powerful breakouts going forward, your best leading stocks have probably already hit new highs.  So look to nibble on those names on weakness.  Here are three suggestions:

Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) is in a great position to capitalize on the soaring price of iron ore.  A few analysts, in fact, have recently raised their earnings estimates to $7 to $8 per share this year, up from $1.19 last year!  The stock is exceptionally powerful–it’s risen from 40 to 67 on huge volume during the past six-and-a-half weeks.  I think any retreat toward 60 would be attractive.

Ford Motor (F) is a turnaround story with legs.  Analysts estimate 2010 earnings could come in around $1 per share, though we think there’s a good chance those numbers are conservative, especially given the firm’s debt-rating upgrade this week, which could slash interest costs over time.  The stock has rallied from 11.5 to 14.2 during the past three weeks, and this is likely to be the stock’s eighth straight weekly advance, a sign of persistent demand.  A retreat into the mid-13s would be tempting.

F5 Networks (FFIV) looks like the leader of the strong networking group.  The stock is working on its sixth straight up week, motoring from 47 to the mid-60s during that time.  Sales and earnings growth has been gradually accelerating, and that trend is forecast to continue.  The big picture here is that corporations are opening up their wallets to spend on IT again after an 18-month hiatus, and F5’s products are some of the best out there.  A dip to 60 would be enticing.

But the fact is, you can never be certain of anything in the stock market. Nothing! So it shouldn’t be a surprise that of all the successful investors I know of, deal with uncertainty exceptionally well … while poor investors do not, and pay the consequences.

So how should you deal with uncertain markets? Really, it’s a two-step approach. First, you want to decrease that uncertainty to some extent–you do have that ability. Second, frankly, you want to learn how to deal with the remaining uncertainty by focusing on something else. I’ll explain what I mean below.

On the first front, the easiest way to decrease uncertainty is to define your risk–i.e., use a stop (mental or an order in the market) to cut ALL losses short, as well to have a worst-case scenario with your winners. When you combine this with prudent position sizing (read: not putting all your money in one or two stocks), you’ll be able to go to sleep at night knowing your risk.

One great trader once said that you can’t predict what the market will do, but you can be prepared for all the potential happenings. That’s basically what I’m saying here–having a plan for all contingencies decreases your uncertainty.

On the second point mentioned above (dealing with whatever uncertainty remains by focusing on something else), the idea is to not obsess over the uncertainty that will always be there. How do you do that? By focusing on things that matter–namely, the price and volume action of the stock itself (which tells you what big institutional investors are thinking), the company’s fundamental story, and your own trading plan. That way, you’re not finding things to get worried about–you’re “planning your trade and trading your plan,” as they say.

Now, if you’re the overconfident type, this article likely doesn’t help you much; maybe you need some help looking at what can go wrong, instead of just focusing on the optimistic side of the fence. But in my experience, many investors become paralyzed by all the things that could go wrong … even though most of these fears are never realized. Following the simple steps outlined above can solve that problem, allowing you to focus more on what we all like to do–finding and buying winning stocks.

But a problem with the trip to the mall was the food options. Nowadays, you generally have two options at a mall–food court fast food or upscale casual places that end up being too risky (and too quiet!) to risk spending 90 minutes in with a temperamental toddler and an unpredictable infant.

So we tried a recently opened location of Chipotle Mexican Grill. Chipotle is a chain of Tex-Mex “fast casual” restaurants that started in 1993 and grew under the guidance of McDonald’s, which spun Chipotle off in an IPO four years ago.

We walked up to the counter and were greeted by a chipper employee who waited while we perused the small (management would say focused) menu, consisting of burritos, tacos, quesadillas and salads with the option for each of steak, chicken, pork and barbacoa, a spicy slow-roasted beef.

Lila isn’t a picky eater, but with a two-year-old you never know, so my wife Jeanne and I have a policy of getting different meals in case Lila decides she’d prefer something else. So Jeanne got the steak burrito, I got the barbacoa burrito and we got Lila the kid’s chicken quesadilla (Phoebe, still nursing, gets her meals separately.)

The employee who greeted us started making our meals, passing the dish to another person who added the toppings we wanted and who then passed it on to the cashier.

Two things immediately struck me about the restaurant, it had none of the stale, sometimes rancid smell of old frying oil fast food joints often acquire, because there is very little deep-frying going on, and the workers seemed happy.

Lila was tickled by the little brown bag of tortilla chips that accompanied her quesadilla. “Mommy, you got me a treat!” she exclaimed and promptly ate up her lunch, saving some chips to snack on as we continued through the mall, both of which pleased Jeanne immensely.

For our part, we both quite liked the food, the meat was tasty and the lettuce was crisp and it all seemed a fine value for around $7 for each of the adult meals.

While it was the first time I ate at a Chipotle, I admit I was already familiar with the company. It’s one of the highest profile companies that are looking to offer humanely raised meat in their restaurants, along with growth hormone-free dairy products and organic beans.

Chipotle calls it “Food with Integrity,” which they define as sourcing from cattle, cows and pigs that are pastured, vegetarian fed and free of antibiotics and growth hormones.  As parents, we look to avoid giving our kids food that isn’t organic or which doesn’t come from hormone-free and antibiotic-free animals (I won’t digress into the details why, but I’d suggest reading “Fast Food Nation” by Eric Schlosser and “The Omnivore’s Dilemma” by Michael Pollan for a disturbing and revealing look at our mainstream food supply).

Plus, as someone who spent many summers in my youth helping out on my uncles’ dairy farms in Ireland, I feel strongly that animals need to be treated with respect and pastured when possible, so much so that instead of supermarket meat, we’ve just started getting deliveries from Vermont’s Houde Family Farm, a small farm that will regularly deliver meat from humanely raised, hormone-free livestock.

In Chipotle’s case, all of its pork and chicken meets the chain’s stated natural guidelines and at locations here in Massachusetts, all of its beef also meets the goal (the level is 60% nationally, expected to grow to 70% by 2011).

—

There is another reason I bring up Chipotle today. It’s a heckuva stock. Since early January, shares have surged 23% from 90 to over 110, and are primed to rise further, having clearly and easily held technical support along the 50-day and 200-day moving averages in recent months. Charts indicate there may be some resistance around 130, but it looks like it will be mild.

From that point, there should only be a little selling pressure from people who bought around the all-time high of 150, touched right before the economic crisis hit in 2008. Mutual funds have added nicely to their already strong positions in Chipotle lately. That translates into excellent share support in rough markets, while a $100 million share buyback plan in 2010 will further boost the stock.

Beyond technical strength, I’m a believer that strong fundamentals beget strong technicals, and Chipotle supports that argument. The chain reported a sales increase of 19% in 2009 to $1.5 billion, including decent same-store sales gains of 2.2%. The company, with 986 locations right now, plans to open another 120 or so this year.

It’s also looking to build on its menu through testing breakfast fare at its Dulles airport location, and a possible kids’ menu (it turns out the kids’ menu that gave my Lila such enjoyment is actually a test-run for possible wider rollout). Management is still evaluating, but believes it sees signs the kids’ menu is producing outsized gains in sales and check size.

Compare that to competitor Qdoba Mexican Grill, owned by Jack in the Box (JACK), which saw same store sales fall 1.7% in its most recent quarter on top of a 1.1% slip the prior year period. Cheap Mexican food competitor Taco Bell of Yum Brands (YUM), draws in the late night munchies crowd with its 99-cent Volcano Tacos, but pulls in $500,000 fewer sales per location annually than Chipotle.

I detailed Cabot Green Investor subscribers all about Chipotle in our March issue, out earlier this month. We usually cover alternative energy and technology stocks in Cabot Green Investor (and our other stock pick this month is a crucial player in the growing LED market whose shares are taking off–and no, it’s not Cree, which was already in the Green portfolio and is up 23% for us this year).

But the world of Green also includes fascinating lifestyle growth plays and we occasionally leap into the exceptional names we’re seeing in order to make profits (CGI subscribers are also enjoying an 11% gain in another Green-related food stock we added to the portfolio on February 26).

Contrary to what many experts predicted entering the most recent recession, Green lifestyle spending, especially food and drink, hasn’t dropped in response to the poor economy–it has simply slowed it growth, and that’s in sectors where overall sales have fallen. That strength has shown itself in share performance: A look at the subsector of Green food and beverage related stocks we track for Cabot Green Investor reveals that every stock in the subsector has outpaced the S&P over the past year.

I recently dug through all the polls and surveys I could find from 2009 and 2010. I estimate from those that about one in 10 consumers chooses to patronize a company (or chooses to avoid it) based on its environmental reputation. That’s not a huge percentage, but it’s enough to give some companies an edge–after all, when it came to a decision that day between McDonald’s, Chik-Fil-A or Chipotle, the decision had essentially already been made for me and my wife. For the other 90%, there’s the taste of the food, and Chipotle more than holds its own there.

No stock is buy-and-forget-about, but Chipotle presents a nice opportunity to make money right now and for the foreseeable future