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A Warning for Bargain Hunters

October 9, 2008
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Yesterday the U.S. Federal Reserve Board, The Bank of England and the European Central Bank all lowered their key interest rates by a half point.  This is the first time since September 11, 2001, that the major Western central banks have taken this kind of coordinated action. Like all rate cuts, this one cuts both ways, both reassuring the financial community that extraordinary action is being taken, and scaring the hell out of everyone that extraordinary action is considered necessary.  Investors, both individual and professional, like to think of themselves as cool and rational, but they’re soothed by helpful...

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A Tractor of a Stock

September 25, 2008
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An investor with a system knows that research never stops.  Even when there’s no buying going on, the preparation for buying has to continue.  So here’s an idea for your growing watch list of stocks. My investing idea is Icon (ICLR) an Irish company that provides support for pharmas, biotechs and medical device makers that need help with product development, research and clinical trials.  Icon has been consistently profitable, with positive earnings for more than a decade.  And after a modest rough patch in 2004–05, the company has booked 11 straight quarters of earnings growth, finishing with a 35%...

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The Big Bear of 2008

September 25, 2008
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You’re living through a historic stock market event, one that will be dissected in texts and articles for as long as people study the market.  Congratulations! If your grandchildren ever get interested in the stock market and its history, you have a first-class, first-hand war story to tell them.  It’s a tale of greed and fear–the constant poles of stock market emotion–plus a clash of opinions about the proper role of government in the market. It’s a classic case of good news and bad news, and there’s been plenty of each. Suppose you’re a classic free-market capitalist, one who...

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Banking on India

September 10, 2008
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My stock idea for today is a big Indian bank, ICICI Bank (IBN). This private-sector commercial bank has grown from an arm of the World Bank into one of India’s leading banks. It introduced ATMs into India and was the first Indian stock to list on the New York Stock Exchange. With well over 700 branch offices, the bank is reaching out aggressively to the growing Indian middle class, and when the Indian economy gets back on the growth track, it will represent a real opportunity. Right now, India is fighting the good fight against inflation, which means that...

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Cut Your Losses Short

September 9, 2008
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Defense may win games, as the sports cliché goes, but it’s offense that fires the imagination.  I’m willing to bet that for every kid who dreams of making a big defensive play, there are a dozen who want to hit the walk-off home run, throw (or catch) the game-winning TD pass or sink the three-pointer at the buzzer. Similarly, I doubt that there are many stock investors who dream of bragging about how much they have limited their losses by being in cash as markets have declined. Well, they should. The one thing that many investors forget is that...

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