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Core Holdings For Your Portfolio: MCD and TJX

by Roy Ward
June 30th, 2010 · No Comments · Cabot, Education, Investing, Stocks, Value Investing

There are literally thousands of companies from which to choose, but only a handful possess near-perfect growth records. Many years ago, I developed a system to measure the growth consistency of a company’s earnings and dividends. Companies that have increased their earnings and dividends at least 10% in each of the past 10 years receive a perfect score.

Within my database of 1,000 stocks, only one company has a perfect score: FactSet Research (FDS). There are a number of other companies with near-perfect earning and dividend scores. Companies with near-perfect records of steady growth coupled with strong balance sheets and clear outlooks for future growth are generally worthwhile candidates for long-term investment.

Two of the most attractive very high-quality companies in my database are McDonald’s and TJX Companies. Both are well qualified to be included as long-term core holdings in your portfolio.

McDonald’s (MCD) operates 32,500 fast-food restaurants in 118 countries and generates $23 billion in sales. International sales have provided much of the company’s revenue and earnings growth during the past 20 years and now contribute 65% of total sales. Worldwide same-store sales increased 4.8% in April and May compared to an increase of 4.2% during the quarter ended 3/31/10. While international sales are leading the growth, sales in the U.S. are stronger than other U.S. restaurants because Americans are eating at less expensive restaurants, such as McDonald’s, to save money during the weak economy.

McCafe beverages, which include latte, frappe, and cappuccino offerings, have become a big hit. Free Wi-Fi access to the Internet and the new Breakfast Dollar Menu are also helping to attract diners. Sales increased 5% and EPS (earnings per share) rose 16% during the last 12 months. We expect sales and EPS growth of 6% and 10% respectively during the next 12-month period and beyond.

MCD shares are reasonably priced at 14.9 times forward 12-month EPS with an attractive dividend yield of 3.2%. MCD has raised its dividend by an eye-popping 25% per year during the past 10 years.  The balance sheet is strong with modest debt and $2 billion in cash. McDonald’s financial history includes steady sales, earnings and dividend growth during the past 35 years. I recommend MCD as a buy now.

Another of my top choices for a core holding is TJX Companies (TJX). TJX is the largest U.S. retailer of discount apparel and home fashion goods with 2,700 stores in the U.S., Canada, Germany, Ireland and the United Kingdom. The company’s main chains are T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, Winners and HomeGoods.

Management believes the slow economic environment offers outstanding opportunities for growth. TJX opened more stores than originally planned in 2009 and renovated many of its existing stores. These moves attracted many new customers who were drawn to low prices and good-quality merchandise. We expect TJX to retain its newfound customers and expand its store base aggressively during the next couple of years.

Same store sales increased 4% in April and May 2010. TJX shares are undervalued at 12.9 times forward 12-month EPS. Sales and EPS will likely increase by a minimum of 8% and 10% respectively during the next 12 months and accelerate thereafter as new stores become more profitable.

TJX increased its dividend at the end of 2009 and has raised its dividend by 22% per year during the past 10 years. The dividend provides a 1.3% annual yield. The company has a strong balance sheet with a reasonable amount of debt and lots of cash. Sales, earnings and dividends have been growing steadily for the past 14 years. I recommend TJX as a buy now.

Editor’s Note: Cabot Benjamin Graham Value Letter has more on McDonald’s and TJX Companies, as well as dozens of other top-rated value stocks. Don’t miss out on those stocks and Roy’s latest recommendations, which will be out in the new issue next week. Get started today!

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