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How to Take the Uncertainty Out of Investing

by Mike Cintolo
March 18th, 2010 · 1 Comment · Education, Investing, Stock Market

In the world of investing, uncertainty can make investors do strange things–panic out of stocks at the wrong time, invest too much or too little in a promising stock, or make some other major error. Sometimes, uncertainty can make investors swear off the market altogether!

But the fact is, you can never be certain of anything in the stock market. Nothing! So it shouldn’t be a surprise that of all the successful investors I know of, deal with uncertainty exceptionally well … while poor investors do not, and pay the consequences.

So how should you deal with uncertain markets? Really, it’s a two-step approach. First, you want to decrease that uncertainty to some extent–you do have that ability. Second, frankly, you want to learn how to deal with the remaining uncertainty by focusing on something else. I’ll explain what I mean below.

CML2-18On the first front, the easiest way to decrease uncertainty is to define your risk–i.e., use a stop (mental or an order in the market) to cut ALL losses short, as well to have a worst-case scenario with your winners. When you combine this with prudent position sizing (read: not putting all your money in one or two stocks), you’ll be able to go to sleep at night knowing your risk.

One great trader once said that you can’t predict what the market will do, but you can be prepared for all the potential happenings. That’s basically what I’m saying here–having a plan for all contingencies decreases your uncertainty.

On the second point mentioned above (dealing with whatever uncertainty remains by focusing on something else), the idea is to not obsess over the uncertainty that will always be there. How do you do that? By focusing on things that matter–namely, the price and volume action of the stock itself (which tells you what big institutional investors are thinking), the company’s fundamental story, and your own trading plan. That way, you’re not finding things to get worried about–you’re “planning your trade and trading your plan,” as they say.

Now, if you’re the overconfident type, this article likely doesn’t help you much; maybe you need some help looking at what can go wrong, instead of just focusing on the optimistic side of the fence. But in my experience, many investors become paralyzed by all the things that could go wrong … even though most of these fears are never realized. Following the simple steps outlined above can solve that problem, allowing you to focus more on what we all like to do–finding and buying winning stocks.

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1 response so far ↓

  • 1 Kevin // Mar 18, 2010 at 3:49 pm

    thanks Mike

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