There’s great progress being made in three large American industries, but to see this progress, you’ve got to look beyond the whining of the people who are being hurt by the changes.
Exhibit one is the newspaper industry, which has suffered from the migration of advertising from the printed page to the Internet.
This is a centuries-old industry, which we all know and understand, and for many people, the mere thought of losing their daily paper is traumatic. But that’s only because they can’t see a better alternative.
Supplying the vision for us, in last Thursday’s Wall Street Journal, was Eric Schmidt, chairman of Google, who wrote the following.
“It’s the year 2015. The compact device in my hand delivers me the world, one news story at a time. I flip through my favorite papers and magazines, the images as crisp as in print, without a maddening wait for each page to load.
“Even better, the device knows who I am, what I like, and what I have already read. So while I get all the news and comment, I also see stories tailored for my interests. I zip through a health story in the Wall Street Journal and a piece about Iraq from Egypt’s Al Gomhuria, translated automatically from Arabic to English. I tap my finger on the screen, telling the computer brains underneath it got this suggestion right.
“Some of these stories are part of a monthly subscription package. Some, where the free preview sucks me in, cost a few pennies billed to my account. Others are available at no charge, paid for by advertising. But these ads are not static pitches for products I’d never use. Like the news I am reading, the ads are tailored just for me. Advertisers are willing to shell out a lot of money for this targeting.”
To me, this sounds pretty wonderful. For decades I’ve flipped quickly through pages of ads that have no attraction for me at all, and I’m ready to move beyond it. I’m hungry for a device that knows what I like and knows what is wasted on me. The only thing missing from Mr. Schmidt’s vision is the ability to do the crossword and Sudoku … but I have faith they’ll come. Today, Amazon.com‘s Kindle leads the pack of e-readers, but these are early days, and it will be exciting to watch the industry evolve.
Exhibit two is the automobile industry, which has been hit by the bursting of the credit bubble, a global recession and a dramatic shift in demand toward more fuel-efficient cars. The good old days are gone, and everyone in Michigan knows it.
But what few can see are the good days ahead, in which cars are far more fuel-efficient, not to mention smarter in every way. The obvious winners will include companies that make batteries, ultracapacitors, charging stations, control systems and the other new technologies in these cars. The less obvious winners will be everyone who benefits from cleaner air, cleaner water, and less dependence on oil imported from nations who are not our friends … and the upside from that can be huge!
Eventually, when all cars are equipped with GPS systems and sensors that monitor the local environment, it will be possible for all cars to drive themselves … so you can read your e-newspaper on the drive to work. But I’m not holding my breath for that; changing learned human behavior (and getting old cars off the road), might be the hardest part of achieving that future.
Exhibit three is the energy industry, characterized by coal-burning plants and a jerry-rigged electric grid that is just plain stupid. What’s coming are non-polluting power plants (solar, wind, water, nuclear and more) and a smart grid that will communicate with your appliances (including your car) so that more energy is used when the grid’s excess capacity is higher, smoothing out demand, stabilizing prices and reducing the need for excess capacity.
The winners will be all companies that produce and deliver power at lower cost, as well as the companies that make the appliances that consume less electricity (there’s one below). The losers will be the old oil companies that fail to embrace the future.
Skeptics, and they abound in every generation, say we won’t be able to change fast enough. Newspapers will disappear and we’ll be left with a mob-ruled Internet where no one is trusted. Oil supplies will dwindle, gasoline prices will soar and the economy will stumble, as the costs of moving goods and people outweigh our ability to pay for them. As our energy supply fails to keep up with demand, the electric grid will fail in the U.S. Meanwhile, the Chinese will keep polluting, the oceans will rise, the Maldives will disappear, and eventually, New York, Miami, Houston and Los Angeles will be underwater … not to mention Shanghai, London, Venice and New Orleans … and many more.
The truth, of course, is not written. Anything is possible, because the future depends partially on what we all do … embrace the future or try to hold on to the past. I’m betting on the future.