It’s easy to understand what a leading economic indicator is and why it leads. If purchasing managers are increasing their buying, it’s because their businesses need new equipment to do business with. Increasing consumer confidence will lead to more consumer spending. Simple. Trailing indicators are a little more complicated, and the amount of attention being paid at the end of last week to layoffs, initial unemployment claims and the unemployment rate are a great illustration. Last Thursday, initial claims for unemployment benefits dropped by 38,000 to 550,000. (There’s a lot of massaging done to these figures to compensate for...
