Today I want to do a quick follow-up from the other day, when I wrote about the Economic Cycle Research Institute’s Weekly Leading Index. A couple of weeks ago, the growth rate for the leading index was at plus 4%, the first positive reading in two years and a definitive sign that the economic recovery was on track. Most people didn’t believe that, considering the awful June employment report and news of continued layoffs. But employment has always been and will always be a lagging indicator–while it’s probably the most important measure of how people feel and of their...