In one of the news reports on US Airways, following the miraculous Hudson River splashdown, it was mentioned that the company’s stock had a nice bounce following the event. That sounded odd to me so I checked the chart and here’s what I found. US Airways stock (LCC) peaked way back in 1998 at 83. Then it crashed to less than a buck. It rebounded to 32 in 2003 … and crashed again to less than a buck. In 2006, it flew up to 63 … and then plummeted to 1 1/2. And in 2008, thanks to falling fuel prices, it got back as high as 11.
But by no stretch of the imagination is this a good investment. The company has lost money in seven of the past 10 years!
As for the Friday bounce, it only came after the stock fell out of bed on initial reports of the crash–from 8 1/2 to 7. The rebound to 8 1/2 means the crash had no net effect on the stock.
So what’s my investment recommendation? A competitor. The lowest-cost operator in the industry. The third-largest passenger carrier in Europe. The company that charges extra for food, drink, baggage, airport check-in and more. The company that carries advertising on its Web site for hotels, car rentals, insurance and more. The company that’s grown revenues every year of the past decade. And most important of all, the company that’s grown its earnings every year of the past decade!
It’s Ryanair (RYAAY), and I think buying it around here is a good bet. The stock first came to my attention a month ago when it appeared in Cabot Top Ten Report. Here’s what editor Michael Cintolo wrote in that issue:
“Ryanair is Europe’s original–and biggest–low-fare airline. Started in 1985, and headquartered in Dublin, it operates 180 aircraft on 729 routes across Europe and North Africa from 31 bases … usually outside major cities. In fact, it’s grown so much, it’s now the third largest airline in Europe as measured by passenger numbers. Both revenues and earnings have grown in every year of the past decade as a result of route expansion and undercutting of established high-cost operators. . . RYAAY is, at heart, a growth company. It’s planning on entering the transatlantic market next year, just as soon as it can buy some cheap idled planes from high-cost operators. And it continues its campaign to acquire Aer Lingus, the national airline of Ireland.”
Admittedly, other airline stocks are strong too, thanks to plummeting fuel prices. And truthfully, I’d rather fly on most of those airlines than Ryanair. But no other airline has the growth record, and the growth potential, of Ryanair. In the past month, the stock has been working quietly to build a base around 30 while its 50-day moving average, now at 27, catches up. I think buying on any normal retreat toward 27 will work out well.
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