The Iconoclast Investor

My stock idea is, very simply, the #1 stock on my watch list right now.  The company sports most of the characteristics of past big winners–fast sales and earnings growth, healthy profit margins, a unique position in a mass market, and a huge opportunity for growth going forward.

It’s Concur Technologies (CNQR), a relatively small ($193 million in revenue) company whose software allows companies to save 50% to 80% on travel-related costs.  The idea is simple–it’s computerizing and automating many of the aspects of booking, tracking and reporting travel expenses.  No more paper-based expense reports!

And the service is offered “on-demand,” which simply means that Concur hosts everything on its own servers, so all customers have to do is log-in online, and get to work.  The overall attraction (cost savings plus ease of use) is so great that renewal rates have been in the 97%+ range for the past six years.

The company’s been doing great for a while–sales and earnings are rising at a 60% to 100% clip–but business should get even better next year.  Why?  Because American Express, once a competitor, has thrown in the towel, bought 13% of Concur’s shares, and is beginning to exclusively push Concur’s software to all its clients.

Considering that Concur has just 7,000 or so clients, versus a potential market of more than 600,000 in the U.S. (according to management), you can see how big this business could get.  The market has also been compared to the early stages of the outsourced payroll market—think Paychex, and ADP, both of which enjoyed years of growth.

Best of all, the stock is acting like a champ.  It broke out to new peaks in August, and is still above those peaks now, despite the horrid market.  It’s positioning itself to be a leader of the next upturn … but I still need to see the market itself find a bottom before buying in.