My stock idea for today is a big Indian bank, ICICI Bank (IBN). This private-sector commercial bank has grown from an arm of the World Bank into one of India’s leading banks. It introduced ATMs into India and was the first Indian stock to list on the New York Stock Exchange. With well over 700 branch offices, the bank is reaching out aggressively to the growing Indian middle class, and when the Indian economy gets back on the growth track, it will represent a real opportunity.
Right now, India is fighting the good fight against inflation, which means that interest rates are high. High interest rates put a damper on mortgages (in which ICICI is a domestic leader) and auto sales (the financing of which is also a strong point in the bank’s business).
The dampening effects of rate hikes have pushed IBN down from 74 to 32, which is a heck of a haircut in anyone’s book. But the stock is now tightening up at 32, with narrowing swings of both highs and lows. This kind of chart pattern often leads to a useful base, and eventually to a breakout into another rally.
IBN is a perfect stock for your watch list as you ride out the current bear market. Presumably you’re heavily in cash in your portfolio, which allows you to laugh at the winter of the stock market’s discontent.
When IBN starts to rise again, you should look for the rising price and soaring sales volume that indicates increasing support and jump in.