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I Found the Volume!

by Mike Cintolo
July 23rd, 2008 · 2 Comments · Charts, Stocks

A few days ago I posted a lesson about looking for the stocks and sectors that display outstanding price and, especially, volume gains during the first few days of a new market rally.  Oftentimes, the stocks that show the best performance initially will go on to big gains in the months to come.

And, interestingly, many times the groups that show extraordinary volume thrusts are unexpected.  Coal was a good example in January; who thought such dirty energy firms could thrive in a world that was going Green?  But thrive they did.

Today, we have an equally unexciting sector that’s attracting huge institutional money flows:  Truckers.  Below are charts of Werner Enterprises (WERN), JB Hunt (JBHT) and Old Dominion (ODFL).  Notice the huge price and volume gains in recent days, as each stock pushes to new-high ground.

Why is this group suddenly so strong?  Collapsing oil and natural gas prices are certainly one reason, but I think there’s more to it than that–in fact, notice how these three stocks held firm during May and June, even as oil prices were skyrocketing.  If oil was all there was to it, then this group would resemble the airlines; horrific declines during May and June, followed by sharp bounces in recent days.

But no, these stocks are at new highs, vastly different than the airlines.  So I believe there’s more than meets the eye; the market might be telling us that the economy is going to recover quicker than most believe, or maybe the trucking downturn took enough firms down the tubes (read: fewer trucks on the road) that prices will rise much faster than expected.

I can’t pretend to know exactly what’s the “real” story … but I don’t think I have to.  The price and volume action, combined with good reactions to recent earnings reports (both WERN and JBHT surged after reporting their numbers; ODFL reports their quarter July 24), tells me to expect higher prices over time.

More on this topic (What's this?) Read more on Volume at Wikinvest

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2 responses so far ↓

  • 1 Timothy Lutts // Jul 29, 2008 at 2:40 pm

    The lack of comments here so far is a great indication of the lack of interest in the trucking sector . . . which makes it even more attractive to me!

  • 2 May // Oct 27, 2008 at 2:00 pm

    Great work.

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